State of Retail & the Consumer 2023

View the full NRF's State of Retail & the Consumer program, presented March 29, 2023.

12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET
Wednesday, March 29, 2023

NRF’s State of Retail & the Consumer, held March 29, 2023, explored the health of American consumers and the retail industry with leaders including NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, Ph.D., retail executives from major brands, prominent economists and consumer experts.

NRF 2023 Retail Sales Forecast

At NRF’s State of Retail & the Consumer event, NRF forecasted retail sales to grow between 4% and 6% in 2023. In total, NRF projects that retail sales will reach between $5.13 trillion and $5.23 trillion this year.

The 2023 Consumer: Back to the Future

Explore the full report presented in the event:

Agenda

Welcome

Matthew Shay, President and CEO, NRF

The 2023 Consumer: Back to the Future

The pandemic brought about seismic shifts in the way U.S. consumers live, work and spend, spurring unprecedented retail demand and accelerating innovation. But just three years after the onset of COVID-19 induced shutdowns, retail sales appear to be headed back toward historical growth rates. Supply chain woes are easing and consumers — who never abandoned physical channels — are turning out in force for traditional shopping events. In some ways, consumer behavior and the retail landscape look as they would had the pandemic never happened. All of which begs the question: Is 2023 set to be a replay of pre-pandemic norms?

Nikki Frazer, Director of Retail and Digital Strategy, Strategy&, part of the PwC network (moderator)
Pashmeena Hilal, Research Manager and Thought Leadership Lead for the Retail Sector, Google
Jonathan Silver, CEO and Founder, Affinity Solutions

2023 Retail Sales Forecast

Jack Kleinhenz, Ph.D., Chief Economist, NRF

2023 Outlook: Making Sense of the Economic Puzzle

Economic conditions for the first half of 2023 look similar to the conditions that prevailed in the fourth quarter of 2022. The U.S. economy is still caught up in a late-stage business cycle expansion that includes ongoing inflation, slowing production and a tightening of monetary and financial conditions. Despite ongoing global uncertainty and rising interest rates, the U.S. labor market has remained resilient. Will the Federal Reserve be able to orchestrate a soft landing in 2023, or will the economy tip into recession? What are the prospects and perspectives for the 2023 economy and its impact on consumers’ ability and willingness to spend?

Jack Kleinhenz, Ph.D., Chief Economist, NRF (moderator)
Kathy Bostjancic, SVP and Chief Economist, Nationwide Mutual
Gregory Daco, Chief Economist, EY-Parthenon, Ernst & Young LLP

Change is Retail’s Normal

With a focus on how change is always “normal” for retailers, this discussion with retail leaders will center on consumer shopping trends and how the past three years have only further prepared retailers to adapt to heightened economic uncertainty. The panel will examine how retailers consistently leverage innovation to meet consumer needs and how retailers are driving customer engagement and retention in today’s competitive landscape while providing exceptional shopping experiences and affordable prices for consumers at all income levels.